VOICES OF REASON

In this section, we will provide references to articles or statements by prominent figures that run counter to the current policy consensus in Washington, that war with China – most likely over Taiwan – is almost inevitable and that we must prepare to prevail in such a war, no matter the cost.

Ma Ying-jeou calls for both sides of Taiwan Strait to work together and ‘avoid war’
Amber Wang, South China Morning Post, April 2, 2024

Note: In this article, Amber Wang of the SCMP reports on a trip to mainland China by Former Taiwanese president Ma Ying-jeou in which he called for Taiwan and the mainland to work together and “avoid war.”

Ma, a senior member of the Beijing-friendly opposition Kuomintang, made the remarks during a visit to the former residence of Sun Yat-sen, the founder of modern China, in the Guangdong city of Zhongshan on Tuesday.

Citing Sun’s last words – “peace, struggle, save China” – Ma said he hoped “both sides of the Taiwan Strait can work together, avoid war … and jointly create peace and prosperity”, according to a statement from Ma’s office.

Ma is on an 11-day mainland trip that he has called a “journey of peace”. He was expected to meet President Xi Jinping during his visit to the mainland.

“Yellen Says Bid to Decouple From China Would Be ‘Disastrous’”
Alan Rappeport, N.Y. Times, June 13, 2023 

Speaking at a House Financial Services Committee hearing on June 13, Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen made clear that she believes the economic relationship with China is critical. 

“I think we gain and China gains from trade and investment that is as open as possible, and it would be disastrous for us to attempt to decouple from China,” Ms. Yellen said. 

As notes in the Times’ coverage of the hearing, the U.S. continues to maintain tariffs that the Trump administration imposed on billions of dollars’ worth of Chinese imports. Moreover, the Biden administration is developing new restrictions on how U.S. companies can invest in China. But Ms. Yellen said that the United States intended only to “de-risk” the relationship and that it had no intention of inflicting economic harm on China. 

“I certainly do not think it is in our interest to stifle the economic progress of the Chinese people,” Ms. Yellen said. “China has succeeded in lifting hundreds of millions of people out of poverty, and I think that’s something that we should applaud.”

‘Lower the Rhetoric’ on China, Says General Milley
~We’re not on the “brink of war” with China, and Taiwan is not so easy to conquer, says the top U.S. general
By Kevin Baron, Defense One, March 31, 2023

Everyone needs to calm down about war with China, Gen. Mark Milley said in an interview with Kevin Bacon of Defense One on March 31, 2023. The chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff warned against the rise of “overheated” rhetoric of a looming U.S. war with China, and he said he doubts China’s chances of “conquering” Taiwan.  

“I think there's a lot of rhetoric in China, and a lot of rhetoric elsewhere, to include the United States, that could create the perception that war is right around the corner or we’re on the brink of war with China,” Milley told Baron. “And that could happen. I mean, it is possible that you could have an incident or some other trigger event that could lead to uncontrolled escalation. So, it's not impossible. But I don't think at this point I would put it in the likely category,” he said. “And I think that the rhetoric itself can overheat the environment.” 

Milley said Taiwan needs air defense, anti-ship cruise missiles, and anti-ship mines. But he said the island itself, its population of 23 million—including 170,000 active duty military and 1-to-2 million reserves—and China’s lack of experience make a takeover unlikely. “It favors the defense. It would be a very difficult island to capture,” he said. “For the Chinese to conduct an amphibious and airborne operation to seize that island—to actually seize it?—That's a really difficult operation. 

“I don't believe war is inevitable. I don't think it's imminent. But I do think that we need to be very, very pragmatic and cautious going forward. And we will reduce the likelihood of war if we remain really, really strong, relative to China, and China knows that we have the will to use it, if necessary.”

To read the complete article, click here

Ma Ying-jeou offered an alternative vision for Taiwan's future
~ Former Taiwan President Ma Ying-jeou’s visit to China showed the potential of a peaceful, non-confrontational path to better cross-strait relations
By Zhu Zhiqun, Think China, April 10, 2023

In this article from Think China, Zhu Zhiqun, a professor of international relations at Bucknell University and a member of the Sane Committee’s Steering Committee, discusses the recent visit to the Chinese mainland by former Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeou, and what his visit signifies about a possible alternative to the current Taiwanese posture on cross-strait relations.

Ma Ying-jeou, president of the Republic of China (ROC) on Taiwan from 2008 to 2016, became the first former or sitting ROC leader to visit the Chinese mainland after 1949. The timing of Ma’s visit was significant, as it coincided with a meeting by the current Taiwanese president, Tsai Ing-wen, with U.S. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy in California.  

Ma travelled to Hunan province days before the 2023 Tomb Sweeping Festival to pay respects to his grandfather and other ancestors. He also toured places where his parents studied and lived. Ma’s visit reminds people of the historical and cultural links between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait. Ma and his hosts agreed that the two sides are both part of “one family.” With high tensions in the Taiwan Strait, this family tie is crucial to avoid war, and so Ma’s trip brings hope for peace.  

The two sides were divided as a result of the unfinished Chinese civil war. After 1949 they went separate ways, but the fact that they belong to one Chinese nation has not changed, and family and cultural links cannot be cut. Ma’s trip highlights the inseparable historical, cultural, and ethnic ties between the two sides.  

The ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) in Taiwan, led by President Tsai, has been trying to de-Sinicize Taiwanese society and instill into the minds of young people the notion that Taiwan and China are two independent countries. As a result, only a dwindling number of people in Taiwan still consider themselves Chinese. This “cultural Taiwan independence” is most pernicious for cross-strait relations since it attempts to construct a non-Chinese or even anti-Chinese Taiwanese identity – one closely linked to U.S. military support. 

Ma’s mainland visit and Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen’s concurrent travel to the U.S. reflect Taiwan’s deepening divide over its relations with China. Ma and Tsai offer two distinct visions for Taiwan’s future. The Taiwanese public have to decide which option serves their best interest. 

Tsai is unlikely to make any breakthroughs in cross-strait relations in her remaining time in office. Her successor after the January 2024 election should grasp the opportunity for serious cross-strait political dialogue. Arming Taiwan with U.S. weapons but rejecting political dialogue with the mainland will not make Taiwan safe. 

Ma’s view on cross-strait relations may not enjoy widespread support now, especially among voters from the pan-Green pro-independence camp. But Ma’s approach is pragmatic and offers a peaceful, non-confrontational path to better cross-strait relations. With the passage of time, perhaps his vision will gain more acceptance by rational Taiwanese. It is encouraging that, as Ma cited, a poll in Taiwan before his trip suggested that 77% of respondents said they would be glad to see the trip happen.

To read the full article, click here