South China Sea
RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA
The South China Sea is a major site of tension and competition between the United States and China. The Committee will post here articles and documents of interest on recent development in the area, with the most recent posted first.
US warns it will defend Philippines in South China Sea
Deutsche Welle, July 12, 2022
Note, in this article, Deutsche Welle (DW) reports that U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken called on China to abide by its international law obligations regarding territorial disputes in the South China Sea and promised that any attack on the Philippines or its forces would trigger a U.S. military response.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken made the statement on the sixth anniversary of a 2016 decision by an international arbitration tribunal that largely ruled in favor of the Philippines over the disputed maritime border in the South China Sea. China did not participate in the arbitration.
"We reaffirm that an armed attack on Philippine armed forces...would invoke US mutual defense commitments," Blinken said in a statement on July 12. The mutual defense commitments stem from a 1951 mutual defense treaty between the two countries.
"We call again on the People's Republic of China to abide by its obligations under international law and cease its provocative behavior," he added.
Scenarios for a Possible U.S.-China Military Clash:
South China Sea: What could go wrong? -The recent atmospherics of the U.S.-China relationship make potentially dangerous incidents more likely
Opinion piece by Mark Valencia, June 25, 2022
Note: In this article, Mark Valencia, an internationally recognized scholar on disputes in the South China Sea, discusses the growing risk of a U.S.-China war erupting out of a clash in that region. He identifies several near-collisions between U.S. and Chinese warplanes and warships in the past and describes a number of possible scenarios that could result in a full-scale military clash. Given the growing tensions between the Y.S. and China, he notes, the risk of such a scenario occurring are rising. Here are some of the scenarios he identifies:
Perhaps the most dangerous current flashpoint is that exacerbated by intensified Chinese military activities – especially those of its air force – to the southwest of Taiwan in what Taipei claims is its Air Defense Identification Zone. This is likely a response to recently enhanced US political and military support for Taiwan. In the early stages of a conflict, Taiwan’s military outposts on Pratas or Taiping in the South China Sea could be targets. Taiwan’s response, with possible US backing, would make them tripwires for a US-China clash. Although this flashpoint is driven by China’s red lines on what it views as Taiwan’s movement toward independence, a military confrontation could draw in US forces in and near the South China Sea, setting off a wider conflict.
Other possible triggers are embedded in the conflicting claims to rocks, ocean space, and resources [in the South China Sea] and the US public commitment to back China’s rival claimants in the face of what it calls Beijing’s “bullying…. The US is taking political advantage by verbally supporting the “victims” of China’s actions. But in doing so, the US is making it more difficult to demur or refuse requests for military help from friends, partners and allies that are being intimidated by China.
In one hypothetical scenario, the US is dragged into a kinetic conflict with China via its 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty with the Philippines. The new Philippine leader, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr – eager to show his mettle and under pressure from Americanophile military leaders – decides to use the Philippine navy and coast guard to confront the Chinese navy or coast guard. A clash ensues. The Philippines asks its US ally for backup. The US then has to choose between a military clash with China or losing its credibility in the region.
Similar situations could arise with other rival claimants. In April 2020, the US sent warships to back up a Malaysian-sponsored oil rig being intimidated in Malaysia’s exclusive economic zone by a Chinese government survey ship accompaniment by several China coast guard ships. The US Pacific Fleet commander, Admiral John Aquilino, justifying the action, said: “The Chinese Communist Party must end its pattern of bullying Southeast Asians.”
Valencia continues with a description of past near-collisions between U.S. and Chinese forces. To see his article in full, click here.
Chinese Defense Minister Gen. Wei Fenghe on the South China Sea:
China ‘will fight to the very end’ over Taiwan: Chinese defense minister
Colin Clark, Breaking Defense, June 13, 2022
Note: In this article, Colin Clark of Breaking Defense reports on a talk given by Chinese defense minister Gen. Wei Fenghe at the Shangri-La security conference in Singapore on Chinese foreign and military policy. In his address, General Wei castigated the U.S. for attempting to encircle China with a chain of hostile states and reiterated China’s determination to secure reunification with Taiwan. He also addressed U.S. claims about China’s efforts to dominate the South China Sea and U.S. efforts to resist such moves through provocative military operations.
“Politics, global affairs should be handled through consultation by all stakeholders, instead of being dictated by just one country or small group of countries,” General Wei said. “No one and no one country should impose its will on others or bully others under the guise of multilateralism.” He also argued that “China respects freedom of navigation enjoyed by all countries under international law.”
Throughout the speech, Wei returned time and again to the idea that the U.S. is trying to force its will upon the region.
“Actually freedom of navigation is not under threat in the South China Sea,” he said. “However, some big power has long practiced navigation hegemony on the pretext of freedom of navigation. It has flexed its muscles by sending warships and warplanes on a rampage in the South China Sea as neighbors that cannot be moved away from each other. We countries in this region must stay vigilant and prevent some countries outside this region from meddling in the affairs of our region and turning the South China Sea into troubled waters.”
The United States, Australia, the United Kingdom and even Germany have performed Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPS), where ships are sailed through international waters as a signal that no one can claim them, in the South China Sea over the last year. The reference to “one big power” would clearly be targeted at Washington, which has more than doubled FONOPS in the region over the last five years.
For an inventory of U.S. FONOP missions since Jan. 1, 2021, go to our page on Provocative Maneuvers.
U.S. warns China after South China Sea standoff with Philippines
Reuters, Nov. 19, 2021
[According to this article, on Nov. 18, 2021, Chinese coast guard vessels used water cannon to block resupply boats headed toward a Philippine-occupied atoll in the South China Sea. The U.S. responded to the action The United States called the Chinese actions "dangerous, provocative, and unjustified," and warned that an armed attack on Philippine vessels would invoke U.S. mutual defense commitments.]
State Department spokesman Ned Price said Washington stood by its treaty ally the Philippines amid an "escalation that directly threatens regional peace and stability." Beijing "should not interfere with lawful Philippine activities in the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone," he said in a statement.
"The United States stands with our Philippine allies in upholding the rules-based international maritime order and reaffirms that an armed attack on Philippine public vessels in the South China Sea would invoke U.S. mutual defense commitments," Price said.
U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin reaffirmed American defense commitments to Manila and pledged to "stand with our Philippine allies" in a call on Friday with his counterpart in the Philippines, Delfin Lorenzana.
China clamps new rules to regulate foreign ships in its waters
PTI/Beijing via Indian Express, Sept. 2, 2021
[NOTE: According to this article, Chinese authorities on Aug. 29 announced new rules for foreign ships entering its “territorial waters,” which are said to include most of the South China Sea, the waters surrounding Taiwan, and large areas of the East China Sea. If enforced by China, the new rules could prove to be a new source of tension between the U.S. and China in the South China Sea.]
According to a notice from China’s maritime safety authorities issued over the weekend, operators of submersibles, nuclear vessels, ships carrying radioactive materials and ships carrying bulk oil, chemicals, liquefied gas and other toxic and harmful substances are required to report their detailed information upon their visits to Chinese territorial waters.
Those vessels should report the name, call sign, current position and next port of call and estimated time of arrival. The name of shipborne dangerous goods and cargo deadweight are also required in the report, a report [in state-owned Global Times] said.
Biden backs Trump rejection of China’s South China Sea claim
Matthew Lee, AP, July 12, 2021
NOTE: According to this article from the Associated Press, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken reaffirmed the Trump Administration’s opposition to nearly all of China’s South China Sea claims and warned that the U.S. is treaty-bound to respond to any Chinese attack on the Philippines. The stern message from Blinken came in a statement released on July 11, 2021, ahead of this week’s fifth anniversary of an international tribunal’s ruling in favor of the Philippines against China’s claims to the Spratly Islands and neighboring reefs and shoals, a ruling China has rejected.
Ahead of the fourth anniversary of the ruling in 2020, the Trump administration came out in favor of the ruling but also said it regarded as illegitimate virtually all Chinese maritime claims in the South China Sea outside China’s internationally recognized waters. Blinken’s July 11 statement reaffirms that position, which had been laid out by Trump’s secretary of state, Mike Pompeo.
“Nowhere is the rules-based maritime order under greater threat than in the South China Sea,” Blinken said, using language similar to Pompeo’s. He accused China of continuing “to coerce and intimidate Southeast Asian coastal states, threatening freedom of navigation in this critical global throughway.”
“The United States reaffirms its July 13, 2020 policy regarding maritime claims in the South China Sea,” he said, referring to Pompeo’s original statement. “We also reaffirm that an armed attack on Philippine armed forces, public vessels, or aircraft in the South China Sea would invoke U.S. mutual defense commitments.”
Indonesia and US building maritime training center on edge of South China Sea
Reuters, via CNN, June 28, 2021
NOTE: According to this article from Reuters, the U.S. and Indonesia have just broken ground on a new $3.5 million maritime security training center on the southwestern corner of the South China Sea. The center is to be located on Batam Island, directly across from Singapore.
Attending the ceremony virtually on June 28, the US ambassador to Indonesia, Sung Kim, said the maritime center would be part of ongoing efforts between the two countries to bolster security in the region.
“As a friend and partner to Indonesia, the United States remains committed to supporting Indonesia’s important role in maintaining regional peace and security by fighting domestic and transnational crimes,” he said, according to a statement from Bakamla, Indonesia’s maritime security agency.
The training center, located at the strategic meeting point of the Malacca Strait and the South China Sea, will be run by Bakamla and houses classrooms, barracks and a launch pad, the agency said.
Beijing has extended another Spratly Islands reef, photos show
Kristin Huang, South China Morning Post, March 24, 2021
In this article, Kristin Huang reports that new satellite imagery indicates that the Chinese have expanded another islet in the South China Sea, Subi Reef. The reef is claimed by China, as well as by Vietnam and the Philippines.
Photographs taken by American space technology company Maxar showed that Subi Reef…had new land added to it that had not been visible in a satellite photo taken on February 20. The new rectangle of land, about 2.85 hectares (7 acres) in size, had been added to the southern edge of the ring-shaped coral atoll, which encloses a lagoon and has a channel for vessels to enter and leave.
Philippines files diplomatic protest over 200 Chinese vessels at disputed reef
AP via South China Morning Post, March 21, 2021
This article covers a statement made by the Defence Secretary Delfin Lorenzana of the Philippines calling on China to take action to remove the 200-plus vessels blocking access to Whitsun Reef, an atoll in the South China Sea claimed by both countries, but lying well within the Philippine’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ).
“We call on the Chinese to stop this incursion and immediately recall these boats violating our maritime rights and encroaching into our sovereign territory,” Lorenzana said in a statement, adding, without elaborating, that the Philippines would uphold its sovereign rights.
The reef, which Manila calls Julian Felipe, is a boomerang-shaped and shallow coral region about 175 nautical miles (324 kilometers) west of Bataraza town in the western Philippine province of Palawan.
U.S. Military's 'Maximum Pressure' in South China Sea 'Unprecedented': Beijing Think Tank
John Feng, Newsweek, March 16, 2021
In this article, John Feng describes a report issued by a Beijing-based think-tank, the South China Sea Strategic Situation Probing Initiative (SCSPI), that documents a sharp rise in provocative U.S. naval maneuvers in the South China Sea over the past few years. These include so-called “freedom-of-navigation operations” (FONOPs) in waters abutting Chinese-claimed islands and multi-carrier combat exercises.
Strategic weapons platforms including carrier strike groups and amphibious ready groups were present in the contested waters for more days than any period in recent memory, the South China Sea Strategic Situation Probing Initiative (SCSPI) said on March 12.
The institute said American spy planes flew nearly 1,000 reconnaissance sorties in the waters in 2020. U.S. Air Force bombers flew 17 missions, including to “simulate bombarding the Spratly Islands,” it claimed.
To access the full report from SCSPI, click here
Beijing kicks off monthlong military exercise in South China Sea
Caitlin Doornbos, Stars & Stripes, March 2, 2021
According to this report, on March 1 China commenced a military exercise in the South China Sea that is scheduled to last until March 31.
The military drills will occur within a 5-kilometer radius of a point west of the Leizhou Peninsula, the state-run Global Times reported Feb. 28. Beijing will prohibit other vessels from coming into that area this month, according to a Feb. 26 notice on the Chinese Maritime Safety Administration’s website.
In a follow-up report, the South China Morning Post reported that the Chinese military conducted practice amphibious landings in the contested Paracel Islands. See below:
Chinese military in South China Sea landing drill as Taiwan tension persists
Liu Zhen, South China Morning Post, March 4, 2021
Chinese state broadcaster CCTV released footage military conducting joint landing drills on Triton Island in the disputed South China Sea. The footage was undated, but is assumed to be part of the monthlong exercise that began on March 1. Triton Island is claimed by Taiwan and Vietnam as well as China.
The CCTV report showed several Type 726 “Wild Horse” air-cushioned landing craft sailing off a Type 071 amphibious transport dock and rushing onto a beach, each with a Type 96A main battle tank and fully armed marine corps soldiers on board.
A Type 052D guided-missile destroyer, a Type 054A guided-missile frigate and a support ship kept guard off the coast, while an Su-30MKK fighter and an H-6K bomber provided air cover.
In the scenario for the assault exercise, PLA marine corps troops landed from vessels and helicopters, then faced strong fire resistance before the army tank team sent vehicles forward and destroyed enemy bunkers.
China-US tension: Biden administration pledges to back Japan and Philippines in maritime disputes
Wendy Wu & Teddy Ng, South China Morning Post, Jan. 28, 2021
In the article, the authors describe efforts by the incoming Biden administration to reassure U.S. allies in the South and East China Seas that it will back them in their territorial disputes with China.
According to the article, on January 28, Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga and US President Joe Biden talked about the defense of the Senkaku Islands (known as the Diaoyu in China) in the East China Sea, and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken pledged support to the Philippines in the event of armed attacks in the South China Sea.
Blinken “reaffirmed that a strong US-Philippine alliance is vital to a free and open Indo-Pacific region” in a call with Philippine foreign minister Teodoro Locsin, according to a statement from the US Department of State.
The US secretary of state “stressed the importance of the Mutual Defence Treaty for the security of both nations, and its clear application to armed attacks against the Philippine armed forces, public vessels or aircraft in the Pacific, which includes the South China Sea,” the statement said.
“Secretary Blinken also underscored that the United States rejects China’s maritime claims in the South China Sea to the extent they exceed the maritime zones that China is permitted to claim under international law as reflected in the 1982 Law of the Sea Convention,” the readout said. Blinken also pledged to stand with Southeast Asian claimants in the face of China’s pressure, it added.
U.S. Conducts Dual-Carrier Exercises in the South China Sea
Below are excerpts from two articles from Reuters describing the harsh Chinese reaction to the arrival in the South China Sea of the U.S. aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt and its escort of cruisers and destroyers for what the U.S. military described as “freedom of navigation” operations:
China says U.S. military in South China Sea not good for peace
Cate Cadell, Reuters, Reuters, Jan. 25, 2021
The United States often sends ships and aircraft into the South China Sea to “flex its muscles” and this is not good for peace, China’s Foreign Ministry said on Monday, after a U.S. aircraft carrier group sailed into the disputed waterway.
The U.S. carrier group led by the USS Theodore Roosevelt and accompanied by three warships, entered the waterway on Saturday to promote “freedom of the seas,” the U.S. military said, just days after Joe Biden became U.S. president.
“The United States frequently sends aircraft and vessels into the South China Sea to flex its muscles,” the foreign ministry spokesman, Zhao Lijian, told reporters, responding to the U.S. mission. “This is not conducive to peace and stability in the region.”
China to conduct military drills in South China Sea amid tensions with U.S.
Reuters, Jan. 25, 2021
China said on January 25 it will conduct military exercises in the South China Sea this week, just days after Beijing bristled at a U.S. aircraft carrier group’s entry into the disputed waters.
A notice issued by the country’s Maritime Safety Administration prohibited entry into a portion of waters in the Gulf of Tonkin to the west of the Leizhou peninsula in southwestern China from Jan. 27 to Jan. 30, but it did not offer details on when the drills would take place or at what scale.
ASEAN to jumpstart pandemic-era talks on South China Sea codex
Dian Septiari, The Jakarta Post, January 26, 2021
After more than a year without progress, ASEAN and China are looking into meeting again in person to continue negotiations for a Code of Conduct (COC) on the South China Sea, which is hoped to be concluded this year.
Officials from both sides were looking at the possibility of having their negotiators meet in person as opposed to engaging virtually as has been the case during the Covid pandemic, noted Sidharto Suryodipuro, the Foreign Ministry’s director general for ASEAN affairs.
In late 2018, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang proposed a timeline of three years to conclude the COC talks, after the two sides agreed to work on a single negotiated draft text after years of political impasse. The first reading of the draft codex was concluded ahead of schedule in July 2019, but the second reading never took place due to the onset of pandemic travel curbs and health protocols that kept negotiations from progressing.
Opinion: The risk of China-US military conflict is worryingly high: The two sides are sleepwalking into confrontation in the South China Sea
Zhou Bo, Financial Times, August 25, 2020
In this opinion piece, Zhou Bo, a senior fellow at the Center for International Security and Strategy at Tsinghua University, warns that the use of provocative air and naval maneuvers by both sides in the South China Sea – in an environment of increasingly harsh political statements – risks sparking a military confrontation that could spin out of control.
In the article, Bo says “It is one thing for the two countries to point their fingers at each other. It is quite another if naval vessels collide in the South China Sea, triggering a direct conflict…. So far, whenever a US ship has come close to China-controlled islands, Chinese naval ships have monitored it and warned it to leave.”
This pattern might continue without accident, allowing both sides to “save face.” The US, he says, can claim that its “freedom of navigation operations” have challenged China’s “militarization” of the area while China can say it has driven away intruders from its waters.
“But that ignores the chance of mishap,” he argues. There have been near-collisions between US and Chinese planes and aircraft before, nearly resulting in a serious escalation. Meanwhile, he notes, “if US ships and aircraft continue to maintain high-intensity surveillance of the South China Sea, there is always the potential for a confrontation.”
Document of Interest:
U.S.-China Strategic Competition in South and East China Seas: Background and Issues for Congress
Congressional Research Service, Report R42784, December 29, 2020
Summary:
In an international security environment described as one of renewed great power competition, the South China Sea (SCS) has emerged as an arena of U.S.-China strategic competition. U.S.- China strategic competition in the SCS forms an element of the Trump Administration’s more confrontational overall approach toward China, and of the Administration’s efforts for promoting its construct for the Indo-Pacific region, called the Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP).
China’s actions in the SCS in recent years—including extensive island-building and base construction activities at sites that it occupies in the Spratly Islands, as well as actions by its maritime forces to assert China’s claims against competing claims by regional neighbors such as the Philippines and Vietnam—have heightened concerns among U.S. observers that China is gaining effective control of the SCS, an area of strategic, political, and economic importance to the United States and its allies and partners. Actions by China’s maritime forces at the Japan-administered Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea (ECS) are another concern for U.S. observers. Chinese domination of China’s near-seas region—meaning the SCS and ECS, along with the Yellow Sea—could substantially affect U.S. strategic, political, and economic interests in the Indo-Pacific region and elsewhere.
Potential general U.S. goals for U.S.-China strategic competition in the SCS and ECS include but are not necessarily limited to the following: fulfilling U.S. security commitments in the Western Pacific, including treaty commitments to Japan and the Philippines; maintaining and enhancing the U.S.-led security architecture in the Western Pacific, including U.S. security relationships with treaty allies and partner states; maintaining a regional balance of power favorable to the United States and its allies and partners; defending the principle of peaceful resolution of disputes and resisting the emergence of an alternative “might-makes-right” approach to international affairs; defending the principle of freedom of the seas, also sometimes called freedom of navigation; preventing China from becoming a regional hegemon in East Asia; and pursing these goals as part of a larger U.S. strategy for competing strategically and managing relations with China.
Potential specific U.S. goals for U.S.-China strategic competition in the SCS and ECS include but are not necessarily limited to the following: dissuading China from carrying out additional baseconstruction activities in the SCS, moving additional military personnel, equipment, and supplies to bases at sites that it occupies in the SCS, initiating island-building or base-construction activities at Scarborough Shoal in the SCS, declaring straight baselines around land features it claims in the SCS, or declaring an air defense identification zone (ADIZ) over the SCS; and encouraging China to reduce or end operations by its maritime forces at the Senkaku Islands in the ECS, halt actions intended to put pressure against Philippine-occupied sites in the Spratly Islands, provide greater access by Philippine fisherman to waters surrounding Scarborough Shoal or in the Spratly Islands, adopt the U.S./Western definition regarding freedom of the seas, and accept and abide by the July 2016 tribunal award in the SCS arbitration case involving the Philippines and China.
The Trump Administration has taken various actions for competing strategically with China in the SCS and ECS. The issue for Congress is whether the Trump Administration’s strategy for competing strategically with China in the SCS and ECS is appropriate and correctly resourced, and whether Congress should approve, reject, or modify the strategy, the level of resources for implementing it, or both.