The Biden-Xi Summit: Lowered Tensions, But No Attempt at Solutions

Analysis by Michael Klare, November 20, 2021 

Presidents Joe Biden of the U.S. and Xi Jinping of China met for 3.5 hours by teleconference on the evening of Nov. 15 (the morning of Nov. 16 in Beijing) in their first virtual “summit.” The two leaders discussed many outstanding issues in U.S.-China relations, including trade, Taiwan, human rights, Covid, and climate change. Both sides described the exchange as cordial and respectful, with the two presidents each articulating his country’s positions on these and other issues. 

Going into the summit, U.S.-China relations were becoming increasingly tense and bitter, with both sides contributing to this downward spiral. On Sept. 15, the U.S. announced a new military alliance with Australia and the United Kingdom, dubbed AUKUS, which involves the transfer of U.S. nuclear submarine propulsion technology to Australia. This was followed on Sept. 24 by a White House summit meeting for leaders of the “Quad” – Australia, India, Japan, and the U.S. – to discuss strategies for countering China. Needless to say, both of these moves produced an angry reaction from Beijing. Then, on the weekend of Oct. 2-4, China dispatched 150 of its warplanes into Taiwan’s air-defense zone, in an unconcealed effort at political intimidation. This move, and other such military displays by China, have prompted increasingly hostile statements by U.S. officials. 

It is easy to imagine how a continuation of such mutually hostile moves could drive the two countries into a dangerous, warlike environment, in which any crisis or incident might trigger an armed confrontation. The first task of the Biden-Xi summit, then, was to lower the level of tensions, and allow for the possibility of negotiations and cooperation on issues of mutual concern, such as climate, Covid, and the world economy.  

In the aftermath of the summit, most analysts agreed that the two did succeed in easing tensions a bit, and reducing the risk of unintended conflict. Both leaders said they wanted to improve communications and take other steps to prevent their nations’ differences from spiraling out of control.  

“It seems to be our responsibility – as leaders of China and the United States – to ensure that the competition between our countries does not veer into conflict,” Biden told Xi while reporters were present at the onset of the summit.  

In a similar vein, Xi compared China and the U.S. to two giant ships sailing across the ocean. “It is important for the two sides to keep a steady hand on the tiller, so that the two giant ships will break waves and forge ahead together, without losing direction or speed, still less colliding with each other,” he reportedly told Biden.  

In an assessment of the exchange, Susan Shirk, chair of the 21st Century China Center at UC San Diego, said, “They want to a put a floor under a deteriorating relationship….The idea is to try to calm things down and prevent things from going from bad to worse.”

What is very clear, however, is that beyond putting a temporary “floor” beneath their “deteriorating relationship,” Biden and Xi achieved very little in preventing a future “collision” between the two powers. 

Clearly, the most sensitive and divisive issue in U.S.-China relations is Taiwan. Going into the summit, both sides had been raising tensions over the island, with the U.S. stepping up efforts to promote Taiwan’s international status and China intensifying its military pressure, as with its intrusion into Taiwan’s air-defense zone.  

Any genuine reduction in U.S.-China tensions will require some effort to defuse the Taiwan issue, notably by finding a path for the peaceful resolution of the island’s status. But President Biden reiterated Washington’s commitment to Taiwan’s defense, while President Xi affirmed Beijing’s determination to ensure the reunification of the island with the mainland – by peaceful means if possible, or violent means if necessary.  

“We have patience and will strive for the prospect of peaceful reunification with utmost sincerity and efforts,” Xi reportedly told Biden. “That said, should the separatist forces for Taiwan independence provoke us, force our hands or even cross the red line, we will be compelled to take resolute measures.”  

Xi also warned Biden against taking any steps that might embolden pro-independence forces on Taiwan. According to the Chinese Foreign Ministry’s account of his remarks, Xi “noted” the rise in tensions over Taiwan, which he ascribed to “the repeated attempts by the Taiwan authorities to look for U.S. support for their independence agenda as well as the intention of some Americans to use Taiwan to contain China,” the Chinese Foreign Ministry said of Xi’s comments. “Such moves are extremely dangerous, just like playing with fire. Whoever plays with fire will get burned.”

The dangers of a “new Cold War” and an unintended U.S.-China conflagration also came up in their conversations, but with scant attempt at a solution. Xi reportedly spoke of the need to manage differences carefully, “to prevent China-U.S. relations from getting derailed or out of control,” while Biden reportedly “underscored the importance of managing strategic risks.” In this regard, he noted “the need for common-sense guardrails to ensure that competition does not veer into conflict and to keep lines of communication open.” But nothing specific, beyond this. 

There was some speculation, going into the meeting, that Biden and Xi would agree to initiate a “strategic stability dialogue” similar to that now under way between the U.S. and Russia, intended to devise measures for controlling advances in nuclear and non-nuclear weaponry, such as hypersonic missiles. Such a dialogue would be exceedingly valuable, given the utter lack of any arms control conversations between Beijing and Washington. But while White House officials, including National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan, have suggested that the groundwork for such talks was laid during the summit, there is no evidence from official U.S. or Chinese sources that this is indeed the case. Instead, we can only expect an intensification of the burgeoning U.S.-China nuclear arms race. 

Both Biden and Xi expressed a desire to collaborate on other issues, including climate change, energy, international trade, and pandemic prevention, calling for further conversations between high-level officials from both their countries to explore avenues of cooperation. But again, nothing of a specific nature was announced.  

In the final analysis, the summit can be said to have achieved its primary objective – of lowering the temperature in U.S.-China relations. But it did nothing to clear the path for future accommodation, and in some areas, especially Taiwan, made plain the fact that violent conflict is becoming more likely, not less so.