The Balloon Is Down: Whither US-China Relations Now?

By Zhiqun Zhu, Professor and Chair, Department of International Relations, Bucknell University and Steering Committee member, Committee for a Sane U.S.-China Policy. Note: This essay that first appeared at Think China on Feb. 10, 2023. To see the original text, click here  

The spotting of a balloon, suspected to be a Chinese spying device, in the airspace above the US state of Montana on the eve of Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s scheduled visit to China, and the handling of the incident by both sides are quite telling of the current state of US-China relations and give one little optimism for improved relations in the near future. 

First of all, the balloon incident exposes how fragile the US-China relationship is. 

After then House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan in August 2022, China cut dialogue with the US in a range of areas, including military-to-military.  

While dialogue in some areas have restarted, the two sides are yet to resume high-level defence talks. At a time when high-level communication is imperative, China reportedly declined a request for a telephone call between US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin and his Chinese counterpart, Wei Fenghe, after the US military shot down the balloon. 

The US government immediately postponed Secretary Blinken’s trip to China. His visit was unlikely to yield substantive results anyway due to the current delicate state of the relationship. If he proceeded with the visit, he would most likely return empty-handed. Or, in an unlikely case, if he reached some compromise with his hosts on key issues such as Taiwan, he would be lambasted by critics at home. In this sense, the balloon incident perhaps helped him and his Chinese hosts avoid a potentially embarrassing visit. 

Indeed, even without the balloon incident, the distrust between the two sides already runs deep and the relationship remains fragile. The incident will exacerbate mutual distrust and fragility in the relationship. 

Secondly, despite posturing from both sides, the two governments appear to be trying to minimize the fallout. 

President Joe Biden gave orders to shoot down the balloon, which the US military did as soon as the balloon was off the South Carolina coast to avoid potential harm to people or property on the ground. An F-22 Raptor fighter fired one AIM-9X Sidewinder missile and successfully knocked the balloon down, demonstrating America’s military prowess. 

Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Xie Feng lodged a formal protest with the US embassy in Beijing over the US attack on a “civilian airship.” He accused the US of “overreaction and a serious violation of the spirit of international law and international practice.” The Chinese defence ministry spokesperson made similar remarks. 

Such posturing notwithstanding (which is mostly aimed at domestic audiences), the two governments show little interest in ramping up tensions. 

The Chinese government symbolically relieved the duty of Zhuang Guotai, head of China Meteorological Administration, in an attempt to shore up Beijing’s claim that the “airship” was of civilian nature mainly for meteorological purposes. Interestingly, Mr. Zhuang was already named to an advisory position in Gansu Province in January and would leave the weather service anyway. The Chinese side also offered a rare expression of “regret” for the balloon’s intrusion into the US airspace, indicating that China does not intend to escalate tensions. 

President Biden only mentioned the incident in passing during his State of the Union address, while focusing on overall competition with China. “If China threatens our sovereignty, we will act to protect our country. And we did,” he said, referring to the balloon incident. But he also said, “I am committed to work[ing] with China where it can advance American interests and benefit the world.” The US side has emphasized the balloon’s violation of US sovereignty and international law while downplaying the military and strategic implications, and Biden himself said the incident had not weakened bilateral relations. 

Notably, except some expected harsh words from the Chinese foreign ministry and defence ministry, Chinese leaders including President Xi Jinping have remained silent on the issue so far. 

Thirdly, the incident shows how difficult it is to implement the agreement reached by Biden and Xi in Bali. 

Biden and Xi met in Bali, Indonesia in November 2022 and reached some consensus about avoiding conflict and asked their foreign policy teams to carry out the tough work of managing the relationship. But apparently preparation for Blinken’s visit did not go well and the Chinese side did not even announce the visit before his scheduled trip. 

Though the Pentagon admitted that the balloon did not present a military or physical threat to people on the ground, the appearance of a suspected Chinese spy balloon above the US mainland and the decision to shoot it down would only strengthen Americans’ perception of China as a threat. After all, this is the first tangible and credible evidence of the “China threat” to many Americans. As a result, American public views of China will turn more negative, which makes it even more difficult for improving bilateral relations. 

The balloon incident is likely to become a contentious issue in US domestic politics, especially for presidential candidates who will surely attack each other and compete on who is tougher on China as the US presidential campaign season begins soon. 

Both sides need to tamp down their rhetoric to avoid further fallout. The postponement of Blinken’s trip provides an opportunity for both governments to rethink the importance of dialogue and stop the downward spiral of the relationship.  

Moreover, the balloon saga serves as a reminder that a new Cold War is underway between the US and China, and diplomacy is urgently needed to manage this consequential relationship. 

President Biden has said repeatedly that the US is not pursuing a new Cold War with China. But the continuing trade war, the intensifying hi-tech war, and growing tensions over Taiwan are clearly part of an ongoing cold war. 

Indeed, recent developments including the balloon incident do not augur well for the bilateral relationship. The year 2023 did not start well for US-China relations. In particular, with the election of Rep. Kevin McCarthy as the new Speaker of the House in US Congress in January, US-China relations are bound to further deteriorate in the near future. In fact, one of the first things McCarthy did as the new Speaker was to create a new Select Committee to address what he believed to be multiple threats from “communist China.” 

Days after the balloon was shot down, House Foreign Affairs chair Rep. Michael McCaul announced his plan to lead a bipartisan delegation to Taiwan in the spring. McCaul said Kevin McCarthy would plan a separate trip to the island either later this year or next year. Such visits will only add tensions in the Taiwan Strait and further frustrate US-China relations. 

In the midst of current tensions came some encouraging news. Two-way trade between the US and China set a new record in 2022: US $690 billion, according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis. Undoubtedly, despite stiff competition and efforts to decouple, the two countries are joined at the hip and must work together.  

Nevertheless, major sources of conflict remain in the relationship, especially over Taiwan’s future. Therefore, it behooves the two powers to responsibly and judiciously manage their relations to prevent a new Cold War from veering into a hot war.